Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.652028 13.629292 15.796351 18.341812 21.243671 24.442402 28.228774
2024-10-20 8.379022 11.003402 14.174765 18.261826 23.358855 29.472955 37.325726
2024-10-27 6.361758 9.244197 13.033543 18.314481 25.407044 34.516564 46.999213
2024-11-03 5.418076 8.579013 13.038519 19.666737 29.118133 41.934533 60.409784
2024-11-10 4.599794 7.873829 12.795209 20.538194 32.169808 48.694909 73.562422
2024-11-17 3.944654 7.254339 12.524933 21.251960 34.981085 55.297701 87.029984
2024-11-24 3.249553 6.413777 11.744851 21.017337 36.259474 59.697190 97.596625
2024-12-01 2.608066 5.523814 10.717499 20.195223 36.448239 62.371593 105.687859
2024-12-08 2.126210 4.819833 9.879547 19.539970 36.772420 65.201189 114.150493
2024-12-15 1.837103 4.428398 9.533147 19.678063 38.411310 70.235740 126.468622
2024-12-22 1.547753 3.972747 8.985812 19.356767 39.175881 73.831140 136.635545
2024-12-29 1.431756 3.871204 9.117781 20.332178 42.364204 81.789300 154.690946
2025-01-05 1.256879 3.606935 8.893701 20.617071 44.371163 87.980329 170.428264
2025-01-12 1.095529 3.340538 8.625502 20.783451 46.183357 94.003656 186.397013
2025-01-19 0.956875 3.098802 8.371269 20.942325 47.992654 100.165378 203.075977
2025-01-26 0.920217 3.124026 8.740299 22.505441 52.802070 112.319077 231.569039
2025-02-02 0.853460 3.048410 8.853458 23.503648 56.525368 122.656820 257.343466
2025-02-09 0.783803 2.947136 8.885369 24.314329 59.919671 132.587569 282.973587
2025-02-16 0.675329 2.696526 8.489223 24.052557 60.946534 137.880043 299.999281
2025-02-23 0.557827 2.380994 7.859930 23.126931 60.384779 139.889936 310.695870
2025-03-02 0.465569 2.122292 7.336867 22.388377 60.157138 142.542650 322.806175
2025-03-09 0.413610 1.994098 7.166838 22.544271 62.033191 149.747545 344.580353
2025-03-16 0.354636 1.819264 6.822730 22.181911 62.621848 154.217463 360.975312